- between the 45nm and 8nm nodes, logic fab costs will double to $10 billion.
- only four companies will be able to follow Moore’s law by 2018
- the annual number of new fabs built will fall by 60% between 2011 and 2015
- by 2015 foundries will account for ~ 1/3 of the value of all semiconductors compared with ~ ¼ today
- by 2012, over 50% of packaging/test (SATS) will be outsourced
- by 2015 more than $30 billion in annual R and D expense will be saved by collaborative R and D.
Gartners estimation of total capacity availability by node and year is shown below followed by the fact that the finer feature chips are the ones driving packaging advances. Walker pointed out that between 1980 and 2010 the number of different packages available on the market has increased from 30 to more than 2200 !