Semicon
Taiwan 2013 consisted of several programs of interest to the IC packaging
community. Taking a look at the Market Trends Forum chaired by Dr
Burn Lin of TSMC.
DRAM Status – Charlie Chan -
Morgan Stanley
During
their discussions on the financial status of the DRAM industry, Morgan Stanley
showed a great slide depicting consolidation in the DRAM memory business over
the last decade.
Even though memory content still favors desktop/PC
over tablet/smart phone the cross over point for mobile applications appears to
be within the next 1 months.
Smartphones – Guadois – UBS
Nicolas
Gaudois Managing Director of UBS Investment Research looked at the “ The End of
the High End Smartphones Run”.
UBS
projects smartphones to be a maturing market with smartphone sales now > 50%
of the US market. They estimate US mid to high end smartphones (> $300) YoY unit growth of 15% in '13E, 8% in '14E and
5% in '15E .
Smartphones
have been the main growth engine for the semis industry out of the financial
crisis. Communications accounted for 57% of TSMC revenues in 2Q13 and 51% for
UMC. UBS assumes single-digit YoY revenue growth for the cellular phones
industry implies similar levels for wireless semis. “This implies a longer term
slowdown in semiconductor revenues growth – until more application drivers
emerge”.
UBS
expects to see late 2014 14nm finfet production at Intel, TSMC and Samsung.
UBS
sees DRAM usage split equally between PC and mobile markets and the NAND flash
demand split between mobile phones and solid state drives.
SEMI Packaging Materials
Outlook – Dan Tracy – SEMI
The
SEMI Packaging Materials forecast is shown below.
1. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA,
and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates; 3. Includes die
attach film (tape) materials; 4. Includes solder balls and wafer level package
dielectrics
The Pacific region
accounting for ~ 95% of the total market !
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and advanced packaging stay linked to IFTLE……………
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